Managing in a downturn: Strategies for Success Part II

The second area for CEOs to focus on to manage a downturn, is marketing and communication. Again, I have put down some thoughts in an earlier post, so will not go into too much detail now. But I would like to emphasise that a well planned marketing and communication campaign can be carried out at a reasonable cost with a high impact.

The third area relates to new initiatives. I have mentioned earlier that investments dry up and new initiatives are ignored in a downturn. So what is the solution?

Let me emphasise that, by no stretch of the imagination am I recommending that investments continue to be made in the same manner as during good times. Far from that. It is good to be circumspect about investment and new initiatives in a downturn. But the tap should not run dry.

Let me take the example of a manufacturing business. Until the downturn, the factories of this business would have been busily engaged in churning out products for a specific industry, which they had been set up to cater to in the first place. Nothing wrong with that. And the good times witnessed over the last few years would have ensured that the factories performed at 100% levels, delivering a solid return on investment and ensuring growth.

Then, came the bust. And the industry the business supplied to would have been severely affected by the downturn. As a result, output would have dropped, the load at the factories reduced and idle time would have increased.

What are the options in such a scenario? One is the list of mistakes I have outlined since I began this blog. What would those initiatives result in? Definitely not an increase in revenue, or a growth in profitability. All that would be achieved would be consolidation of some amount of revenue and profit or perhaps maintaining a steady loss that does not grow further. And the factories would continue to have idle capacity. Not a great situation to be in.

A second option could be to go for volumes. Take in any business that comes in or that can be grabbed, irrespective of the price or profit margins. After all, in a downturn, all companies are interested in increasing their margins or, at the very least, reducing costs. There would be plenty of takers, beginning with existing customers and going on to customers of competition, who would be happy to give additional business at lower prices. But what would this strategy result in? Sure, the factories would not be idle any more and fixed costs would be spread across a larger output. But what about profit margins? They would be unlikely to increase significantly. In fact, there would be greater chances of profit margins not just dipping, but also sinking into the red, chalking up losses. For the additional high volume low margin (or even loss making) business would not just counterbalance the existing business, but perhaps also cannibalise existing margins since current customers would clamour to shift all their business to the lower prices.

Is there a strategy that could help fuel growth? Perhaps even increase profitability? I am sure you can think of some and I’d like to hear them.

But let me suggest one for now. Suppose the organization were to remove its blinkers that blinded it to new opportunities. Suppose it went out into the market and proactively looked at new industries that it never looked at before, for lack of time and/or inclination. You may be surprised (or not!), but for businesses that have done this, there are innumerable new opportunities just waiting to be discovered. New industries that can be tapped, either with existing assets and resources or with a minor investment. But these new initiatives can result in exponential growth even in a downturn. I’ve seen this happen. I’ve spoken to CEOs who have growth their revenue and profitability by upto 30% over the last eight months, which have been the worst months of the downturn.

The fourth area pertains to efficiencies. In all areas of the organization. Just as managerial inadequacies get glossed over during the good times, inefficiencies within the organization are overlooked and sometimes even swept under the carpet during a boom. The organization can afford to turn a blind eye to these inefficiencies, since the peak of the business cycle provides opportunities for growth and profitability that more than compensate for any negative impact these inefficiencies may have. But when a downturn begins, there are no buffers, and the inefficiencies stand exposed, with their impact on the bottomline a damning indictment of the excesses of the good times.

The downturn, then, is a great opportunity to weed these inefficiencies out of the system and trim the flab. This will create a leaner and nimbler organization which will be well prepared to grow rapidly when the upturn begins.

And that brings me to the topic that is extremely relevant as the downturn bottoms out and the upturn beckons.

How should organizations prepare for the upturn?