Preparing for the Upturn: Part IV

So, how does one prepare long term strategies when short term forecasting is difficult?

One answer is scenario planning.

This is how it works. When the future is uncertain, there could be a range of possibilities. While it is difficult to determine exactly which set of possibilities will eventually hold sway, it is possible to arrive at different scenarios with varying probabilities of occurring. Given that in this specific instance we are talking about scenario planning for a recovery, the upside risks will be significantly higher than the downside risks. Which makes it much easier to put together the scenarios, since one can usually anticipate the different opportunities that present themselves during an upturn.

Based on these scenarios, strategies to capitalize on the opportunities presented by each scenario can be prepared. Since each scenario has already been assigned a probability of occurrence, it is relatively easy to prioritise the strategies.

This is just one method of setting long term strategies. If anyone out there has any other suggestions, I’d be glad to hear them.

In my next post, I am going to talk a bit more about planning and how it can help prepare for the upturn.